Q2 Western Washington Real Estate Market Update

The following analysis of the Western Washington real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please contact me!

 

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Washington State employment jumped back up to an annual growth rate of 2.4% following a disappointing slowdown earlier in the spring. As stated in the first quarter Gardner Report, the dismal numbers earlier this year were a function of the state re-benchmarking its data (which they do annually).

The state unemployment rate was 4.7%, marginally up from 4.5% a year ago. My current economic forecast suggests that statewide job growth in 2019 will rise by 2.6%, with a total of 87,500 new jobs created.

 

HOME SALES

  • There were 22,281 home sales during the second quarter of 2019, representing a drop of 4.8% from the same period in 2018. On a more positive note, sales jumped 67.6% compared to the first quarter of this year.
  • Since the middle of last year, there has been a rapid rise in the number of homes for sale, which is likely the reason sales have slowed. More choice means buyers can be more selective and take their time when choosing a home to buy.
  • Compared to the second quarter of 2018, there were fewer sales in all counties except Whatcom and Lewis. The greatest declines were in Clallam, San Juan, and Jefferson counties.
  • Listings rose 19% compared to the second quarter of 2018, but there are still a number of very tight markets where inventory levels are lower than a year ago. Generally, these are the smaller — and more affordable — markets, which suggests that affordability remains an issue.

 

HOME PRICES

  • Year-over-year price growth in Western Washington continues to taper. The average home price during second quarter was $540,781, which is 2.8% higher than a year ago. When compared to first quarter of this year, prices were up 12%.
  • Home prices were higher in every county except King, which is unsurprising given the cost of homes in that area. Even though King County is home to the majority of jobs in the region, housing is out of reach for many and I anticipate that this will continue to act as a drag on price growth.
  • When compared to the same period a year ago, price growth was strongest in Lewis County, where home prices were up 15.9%. Double-digit price increases were also seen in Mason, Cowlitz, Grays Harbor, and Skagit counties.
  • The region’s economy remains robust, which should be a positive influence on price growth. That said, affordability issues are pervasive and will act as a headwind through the balance of the year, especially in those markets that are close to job centers. This will likely force some buyers to look further afield when searching for a new home.

 

DAYS ON MARKET

  • The average number of days it took to sell a home matched the second quarter of 2018.
  • Snohomish County was the tightest market in Western Washington, with homes taking an average of only 21 days to sell. There were five counties where the length of time it took to sell a home dropped compared to the same period a year ago. Market time rose in eight counties and two were unchanged.
  • Across the entire region, it took an average of 41 days to sell a home in the second quarter of 2019. This was the same as a year ago but is down 20 days compared to the first quarter of 2019.
  • As stated above, days-on-market dropped as we moved through the spring, but all markets are not equal. I suggest that this is not too much of an issue and that well-priced homes will continue to attract attention and sell fairly rapidly.

CONCLUSIONS

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors. I am leaving the needle in the same position as the first quarter as demand appears to still be strong.

The market has benefitted from a fairly significant drop in mortgage rates. With average 30-year fixed rates still below 4%, I expect buyers who have been sitting on the fence will become more active, especially given that they have more homes to choose from.

 

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

Posted on July 25, 2019 at 12:52 pm
Denni Shefrin | Category: Market News, Matthew Gardner Reports | Tagged , , , , , , ,

Eastside Market Report | July 2019 | Provided by Denni Shefrin

The market in our region appears to be moderating. Inventory is up, prices are relatively stable and homes are taking a bit longer to sell. However, with less than two months of available inventory, supply is still far short of demand. Steady buyer activity, low interest rates and a thriving economy are making for a strong summer in the housing market.

Eastside

>>>Click image to view full report.

The median price of a single-family home on the Eastside was $950,000 in June, down 3% from the same time last year and up $21,000 from May. Many buyers are looking to take advantage of the Eastside jobs boom with Amazon announcing plans to build a 43-story tower in Bellevue and Google expecting to reach 1 million square feet of office space in Kirkland.

King County

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There was good news for buyers in June as a growing supply of homes helped boost inventory close to 2012 listing levels. The median price of a single-family home in King County was $695,000. That figure is a 3% drop from a year ago and virtually unchanged from May. 33% of homes sold above list price; another sign prices are moderating when compared to 52% of homes sold over list price this time last year.

Seattle

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Home inventory in Seattle inched slightly higher in June. However, with less than two months of supply, the city is still a solid seller’s market. Apple’s plan to turn Seattle into a key engineering hub can only add to demand. The median price of a single-family home in Seattle was $781,000, down 4% from a year ago and nearly unchanged from May.

Snohomish County

>>>Click image to view full report.

After hovering around $500,000 since March, home prices in Snohomish County crept up in June. The median price of a single-family home was $515,500, as compared to $511,500 last June. Snohomish County continues to attract buyers priced out of the King County market, putting an additional strain on supply which stands a just 1.5 months of inventory.

Posted on July 23, 2019 at 4:23 pm
Denni Shefrin | Category: Market News | Tagged , , ,

Eastside Market Report | June 2019 | Provided by Denni Shefrin Copy Copy


The pace of the housing market gained momentum in May, bringing an uptick in open house traffic and offers. A drop in interest rates and increased inventory were great incentives for buyers. Despite the increase in supply there is less than two months of inventory available – half the national average and far short of what is considered balanced. Industry experts are predicting a strong market as we segue into summer.

Eastside

MarketUpdate_Eastside_May19.png

The median price of a single-family home on the Eastside was $928,800 in May, down 3% from the same time last year and virtually unchanged from April. With a booming economy that continues to grow, news of Amazon’s expansion in Bellevue, the latest Microsoft acquisition and plans for a $1.2 billion office park in Redmond, demand for housing on the Eastside is unlikely to decrease any time soon.

King County

MarketUpdate_KingCo_May19.png

Home sale activity in King County was brisk in May. According to a Windermere analysis, 7 out of 10 properties sold last month had 15 or fewer days on the market. More than half of the homes sold at or above list price. The median price of a single-family home was $700,000. While down 4% from the same time last year, that price was up about $22,000 from the previous month. Home to the fastest growing economy in the country,  King County is expected to draw even more buyers to the area this year.

Posted on June 19, 2019 at 3:10 pm
Denni Shefrin | Category: Market News | Tagged , , , , , , ,

The Housing Market in 2019

The last time we saw a balanced market was late 1990s, meaning many sellers and buyers have never seen a normal housing market.  Windermere Real Estate’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner looks at more longer-term averages, what does he see for the future of the housing market?

 

Posted on May 23, 2019 at 5:23 pm
Denni Shefrin | Category: Market News, Matthew Gardner Reports | Tagged , , , , ,

Eastside Market Report | May 2019 | Provided by Denni Shefrin Copy

 


The spring home buying season started early this year. Open houses had increased attendance and bidding wars returned. After months of softening, home prices in most of the region jumped significantly from the prior month. With just one month of data, we’ll have to wait and see if this is the start of a longer upward trend.

 

 

 

Posted on May 19, 2019 at 3:04 pm
Denni Shefrin | Category: Market News | Tagged , , ,

The Q1 2019 Western Washington Gardner Report

View Full Report

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

Posted on April 25, 2019 at 7:00 pm
Denni Shefrin | Category: Market News, Matthew Gardner Reports | Tagged , , , , ,

Eastside Market Report | April 2019 | Provided by Denni Shefrin

 


After months of softening, home prices began to rise in February. That trend continued in March. While prices in most areas were down from the same time last year, they increased over the prior month. New listings rose as well, offering buyers more options and more time to make the right choice. Despite the uptick in listings, inventory is still under two months of supply, far short of the three to six months that is considered balanced.

Here are the full reports for Eastside Market Report, Seattle Market Report, Snohomish Market Report and King County Market Report!

 

 

 

Posted on April 16, 2019 at 3:03 pm
Denni Shefrin | Category: Market News | Tagged , , ,

Matthew Gardner 2019 Housing Forecast

Posted on March 31, 2019 at 11:42 am
Denni Shefrin | Category: Market News, Matthew Gardner Reports | Tagged , , , ,

Scarce listings drive King County home prices to new highs

 

The median price of single-family homes sold in King County hit a new all-time high last month — $514,975 — amid record-low inventory, heralding even more intense bidding wars ahead in the typically busy spring home-buying season.

Ominously, the more affordable Snohomish and Pierce counties also face a historically low inventory level, according to a Seattle Times analysis of data from the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

 

 

 

One widely-watched gauge of supply — the ratio of active listings to pending sales — hit its lowest level since at least 2003 in all three counties in February, according to the Times’ analysis. King and Snohomish counties each had less than a month’s supply, while Pierce had just over a month’s supply.

The historic shortage of homes for sale, combined with a recent drop in interest rates, has caused the dramatic run-up in prices, experts say. In February, King County had 1,923 homes listed for sale, the MLS reported, but a greater number of pending sales that hadn’t yet closed: 2,299.

“We cannot continue to sell more homes than we list,” said Matthew Gardner, chief economist at Windermere Real Estate. “When are we going to start seeing some listings? That scares me more than anything else.”

Single-family home prices in the city of Seattle jumped 24 percent over the year to a median $644,950. Despite an older housing stock, Seattle is ground-zero for the region’s job growth.

Expedia and Weyerhaeuser are moving their suburban headquarters to Seattle. Amazon.com recently opened its new high-rise campus in South Lake Union. And Silicon Valley titans like Facebook and Apple have established satellite offices here.

This article originally appeared in the Seattle Times. To read more, click here.

Posted on March 24, 2016 at 3:51 pm
Denni Shefrin | Category: Market News | Tagged , , , ,

Seattle metro-area home prices up nearly 10 percent in a year

Seattle-area home prices surged in December, posting the fourth-highest annual gain among 20 metros, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city index released Tuesday.

The average price of existing single-family homes sold in King, Snohomish and Pierce counties climbed 9.9 percent over the year in December, its fastest pace in 2015. In the 20-city index, Seattle trailed only Portland (11.4 percent), San Francisco (10.3) and Denver (10.2) in annual price increases.

Nationally, prices in the 20-city index climbed 0.8 percent over the month in December, slowing a bit from a 1 percent increase in November. The index recorded a 5.7 percent annual gain.

Home prices in all but one city are rising faster than inflation, said David Blitzer, chairman of S&P’s index committee. Some might take that as a sign of trouble, especially given the stock market’s turmoil this year and the current age of this economic expansion.

“The recovery is 6 years old, but recoveries do not typically die of old age,” Blitzer said in a statement.

Higher home prices are encouraging builders: “Housing construction, like much of the economy, got off to a slow start in 2009-2010 and is only now beginning to show some serious strength,” he said.

Average prices in the Seattle metro area in December were less than 3 percent below the peak set in summer 2007, according to Case-Shiller data. The 20-city index is still about 12 percent off its 2006 peak.

Svenja Gudell, chief economist at Seattle-based Zillow, the real-estate website, said in a statement that the nation’s housing market faces a few challenges this spring: Low housing inventory is a factor in nearly every market now. Low oil prices are a drag on job growth in the Dakotas, Alaska and Texas. And the stronger U.S. dollar will affect demand from foreign buyers, while keeping mortgage-interest rates low.

This article originally appeared in the Seattle Times.

Posted on March 3, 2016 at 9:29 pm
Denni Shefrin | Category: Buying, Market News, Selling | Tagged , , , ,