King County Had Almost Half of 2015’s 30 Most Competitive Neighborhoods in America

 

We probably don’t need to tell you that 2015 was a crazy year in real estate, especially in our city. Bidding wars and listings lasting mere days on the market is something we’ve all grown accustomed to. But it turns out we’re not alone. Redfin recently came out with a list of the 30 most competitive neighborhoods from all across the U.S.. What’s the most mind blowing thing about this list? Of the 30 neighborhoods listed, 13 of them are in King County.

Top30Competitive-Neighborhoods-Table2

Seattle neighborhoods that made it onto this list are Roosevelt (4th), Phinney Ridge (9th), Stevens (11th), Greenwood (12th), Victory Heights (16th),Green Lake (17th), Madrona (20th), West Woodland (22nd). I mean, we all knew it was stormy out there, but this felt like a snow storm in Waikiki. It’s hard to say exactly what 2016 has in store, but our very own Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, has a few ideas (such as expecting that housing in Seattle will continue to appreciate in value, but at a slightly lower rate than 2015).

Read more on Seattle Curbed.

This article originally published on Windermere Seattle's blog.


Posted on February 11, 2016 at 7:59 pm
Denni Shefrin | Posted in Buying, Homeownership Trends, Selling |

2016 Housing Forecast: “Very Strong” for Sellers

2016-forecast-header

According to a recent REALTORS® Confidence Index Survey Report, 2016 is projected to be a very strong market for local area sellers.

With inventory at historic lows, prices at or near record highs, and multiple offers the norm, it’s an exceptional time to get top dollar for your home.

Washington is one of only three states in the country projecting a “very strong” market for single family home sales.

single-family-forecast

This information was originally posted on Windermere Eastside's blog. Read more here!


Posted on January 28, 2016 at 10:45 pm
Denni Shefrin | Posted in Local Market Update, Selling |

Buyers pay cash in a third of Seattle home sales

This story originally appeared on King5.com

The number of home-buyers paying cash rose to more than 31 percent of transactions, according to RealtyTrac, which released data for November 2015 in Seattle.

Also in December, the median sale price rose to $508,000 — that's 15 percent higher than a year earlier.

"It's a downer," said Tony Aguilar, who was touring open houses in Ballard on Saturday with his girlfriend. "We've come into a few places, thinking about putting in an offer. We found others are already putting in a cash offer. That makes it way more competitive for us."

"I think it's really frustrating for normal people who want to get financing," said Kim O. Dales, a real estate agent showing a $1.8 million home in Laurelhurst. Dales and other agents say buyers are paying cash across the price spectrum.

Cash buyers are sometimes builders or corporate buyers, but they're also wealthy individuals from the Bay Area, investors from China or younger people borrowing money from their parents to compete in a red-hot market, says Dales.

 


Posted on January 14, 2016 at 10:32 pm
Denni Shefrin | Posted in Buying, Local Market Update, Selling |

This is what happens when you respond to SPAM Email…

I am an avid TED Talks watcher and just came across this Talk. It's hysterical and I suspect will give you pause too! It's also hilarious!


Posted on January 9, 2016 at 10:12 am
Denni Shefrin | Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged

No Wage Stagnation on the Eastside

Wages on the Eastside are up

Last month’s U.S. Census report showed that middle-class incomes nationally were stagnant, confirming a trend that has been widely reported. But when 425Business magazine crunched the numbers for a local perspective, the picture changed. Unlike the U.S as a whole, median incomes in Bellevue and the greater Seattle area have risen – and wage growth has been particularly strong on the Eastside. A booming technology industry has made the Puget Sound area’s economic growth a standout.

Home prices soar as well

A steady influx of well-paid tech workers has boosted the local real estate market. With an increasing demand for homes, and not enough supply to meet the need, home prices have soared this year. The latest figures from the Northwest Multiple Listing Service show the median price of a single family home is up 10 percent over last year. If you’re considering selling, you’d be hard-pressed to find a better time to get top dollar for your home.

eastsideincome


Posted on January 7, 2016 at 11:13 am
Denni Shefrin | Posted in Local Market Update |

No Need To Panic About Rising Interest Rates

 

This article originally appeared on Inman.com 

 

After seven years of some of the lowest interest rates in recorded history, the Federal Reserve has decided to raise the key Fed Funds Rate by 0.25 percent, which is causing some to be concerned that it will lead to a jump in mortgage rates and negatively impact the US housing market.

So, the question everyone wants to know is, do we need to worry about interest rates leaping?

While I expect there to be some volatility in rates for a while, I don’t believe the real estate market will implode in a rapidly rising interest rate environment. So, yes, interest rates are going to rise modestly, but no, I don’t think we need to be overly worried about it.

To qualify this statement, we need to understand that mortgage rates do not run in “lock-step” with the Fed Funds Rate. Although the Fed Funds Rate is a bellwether for the greater economic environment, there have been times when these two rates have moved in opposite directions, such as we saw in 2004/2005.

It’s also important to understand that while interest rates for revolving credit, such as credit cards and home equity loans, are tied to the Fed Funds Rate, non-revolving loans – like mortgages – are not. Mortgage rates are tied to bond yields – specifically the 10-year treasury.

So what do I think will happen?

I believe interest rates will rise above 4 percent, but we will not see a sharp spike in rates. The Fed has stated that any upward movement in the Fed Funds Rate will be slow and steady, and will reflect the greater economy. And I believe that mortgage rates will follow suit.  Additionally, mortgage rates have already moved higher in anticipation of an increase in the Fed Funds Rate.

That said, it is worth noting that any weakness in the global economy can actually have a downward effect on interest rates. This is referred to a “flight to quality”. In essence, investors seek safe haven during times of economic uncertainty. If markets outside the U.S. continue to underperform, there will likely be increasing demand for bonds which will drive up their price and drive down interest rates. Between China, the Eurozone, war in the Middle East, and a massive drop in oil prices, it's certainly possible that the price of mortgage backed securities could rise, leading U.S. mortgage rates lower.

Interest rates could not realistically stay at their current levels forever. But an increase should not be a great cause for concern. Yes, an increase makes mortgages more expensive, but not to a point where they will have a negative effect on home values. That said, the rate of home price growth will undoubtedly slow in the coming year, but that isn’t necessarily a bad thing.

A little perspective might help: the average rate for a 30-year loan in the 1970’s was nine percent. It was 13 percent in the 1980’s and eight percent in the 1990’s. And yet people still managed to buy and sell homes throughout those years. With that in mind, the rate increases we’re likely to see in 2016 are nothing to fret over.

The increase in the Fed Funds Rate should be taken as a sign that our economy is expanding and is a preemptive move to limit anticipated inflation. While interest rates have risen from their all-time low, they are still remarkably favorable. And will remain so through 2016.

 

Matthew Gardner is the Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, specializing in residential market analysis, commercial/industrial market analysis, financial analysis, and land use and regional economics. He is the former Principal of Gardner Economics, and has over 25 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K. 


Posted on December 17, 2015 at 1:35 pm
Denni Shefrin | Posted in Local Market Update, Mortgages |

No national bubble in sight, but there are some frothy markets

 

This article originally appeared on Inman.com 

Earlier this year, I wrote an article called “No housing bubble in sight — for now” in which I shared my belief that the nation, as a whole, is not currently at risk of seeing another housing bubble.

However, I did qualify that statement by saying that I was noticing some “frothy” markets around the country that might be getting a little too hot.

In this article, I plan to divulge those markets that are likely to see slowing price growth in 2016 and possibly a downward correction.

The primary data sources that I used for my analysis were the Case-Shiller Index and the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA).

I chose these two providers as they both prepare indices on home values using the repeat sales method. That is to say, they use data on properties that have sold at least twice to capture the true appreciated value of each home.

What the data shows

As I studied these data sets, it became apparent to me that there are some markets that we need to watch. From a very simplistic standpoint, both Case-Shiller and the FHFA indicated a few cities that have already surpassed their peak index levels.

Using the Case-Shiller numbers, these were Dallas, Denver, Portland and Boston. The FHFA data showed Dallas, Atlanta, Charlotte, Portland, San Francisco and Seattle as having surpassed their previous peaks.

While this can certainly be an indicator that a market is getting overheated, it’s not the be-all and end-all because external influences, such as mortgage rates and recessions, can all affect index levels.

Because of this, I thought it was important to take a closer look and focus on those markets that might be tracking above their natural trend.

That’s to say, I looked at pre-bubble growth rates, forecasted that rate forward in time and then compared that number to the present index levels.

After having completed this analysis, San Francisco, Denver and Dallas appear to be appreciating at a faster rate than their historic averages.

Even two indicators that point toward a potential problem don’t guarantee an outcome. Because of this, I decided to round off my analysis by looking at the ratio of home prices to incomes in the market areas that were of interest.

This is another important indicator when determining the health of a housing market as it speaks to affordability.

For the past few years, home values have been rising at rates well above that of incomes, but thanks to low-interest rates, this hasn’t yet created a significant barrier for buyers.

However, mortgage rates are set to rise, and this could leave some markets with homes that are too expensive for buyers earning that area’s median income.

When we look at the world through this lens, the cities where I see a cause for concern are San Francisco, San Diego and San Jose.

So what does this all mean?

Well, for one thing, San Francisco stands out — and not necessarily in a good way. Additionally, several markets have recovered from the housing collapse, and they are getting a little ahead of the rest of the country; specifically Denver and Dallas.

I will be watching these markets closely and anticipate that we might see a relatively steep slowdown in home price growth in these three cities.

The U.S. housing market has spent the past three years in recovery mode with robust demand, tight supply and favorable interest rates, which created a perfect environment for prices to rise — and rise they did.

However, I believe that a select few markets, such as San Francisco, Denver and Dallas, are getting a little out of sync and should start to prepare for an almost certain slowdown in price growth.

Now, if there is any consolation, it’s that the slowdown is supply-driven. If we do not see a significant increase in inventory in these markets, any slowdown in home prices might be offset by persistently high demand. Only time will tell.

 

Matthew Gardner is the chief economist for Windermere Real Estate. Follow him on Twitter @windermere

Posted on December 3, 2015 at 2:17 pm
Denni Shefrin | Posted in Local Market Update | Tagged , , , , ,

Local Market Update – November 2015

The hot real estate market shows little sign of slowing down. Home prices continued to move upward. With the number of pending sales exceeding the number of new listings, the supply of homes is falling well short of demand. The inventory of homes in the Puget Sound area is 23 percent less than a year ago.

Eastside

Click image for full report. Click image for full report.

Home prices on the Eastside continue to be well above those in other parts of King County. The median price for homes sold in October was $667,000, an eight percent increase over the previous year. Inventory remains at historic lows, with only a six week supply available – far below the three to six months of supply that is considered to be balanced.

King County

Click image for full report. Click image for full report.

Inventory remained tight throughout King County with just five weeks of available supply. Limited inventory has fueled home prices, pushing the median price of a home up seven percent over last year to $480,000. Home prices vary significantly based on location. While the median home price was $555,000 in Seattle, the median price was $449,950 in North King County, and $297,824 in Southwest King County.

Seattle

Click image to view full report. Click image to view full report.

A recent analysis ranked Seattle as the nation’s #1 hottest market for single family homes. That demand has depleted the supply of homes, which stands at just under one month of inventory. Demand has also kept prices climbing. The median price of a home in Seattle increased eight percent over the previous year to $555,000.


Posted on November 19, 2015 at 2:12 pm
Denni Shefrin | Posted in Local Market Update | Tagged , , , , , , ,

Know Before You Owe: Making the Mortgage Process Easier for You

This is a great piece from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Learn about the new federal changes enacted this month that add tons of transparency to the mortage loan disclosure process! As always, your comments are welcome!

http://www.consumerfinance.gov/blog/know-before-you-owe-making-the-mortgage-process-easier-for-you/


Posted on October 23, 2015 at 3:31 pm
Denni Shefrin | Posted in Mortgages |

Your Top Rated Real Estate Agent in Bellevue

I'm here for you!

It is an honor to be awarded as a top rated real estate agent in Bellevue. I always strive to be the best resource for my clients as I help them navigate the buying or selling process. Everything I do for my clients is about making your real estate dreams happen.

Denni Shefrin’s mission is to inspire and educate those around her to help them manifest their goals. She takes pride in delivering excellent service through empathetic listening to understand what her clients want to achieve. She then works tirelessly to help them reach their goals. Her business practice is founded on honest caring and ethical conduct. She has over a decade of Real Estate experience working with Windermere – the leading company in the Northwest. Her primary market area is the Eastside.

Clients hold Denni Shefrin in the highest regard. “Denni Shefrin is simply the best Real Estate professional I have ever encountered. Her attention to detail, caring attitude and professional knowledge are second to none. She was able to guide us through a difficult home preparation and sales experience with great capability. I could not imagine having gone through this experience with anybody other than Denni. I enthusiastically recommend her for any possible client.” – Maggie and Bill Blackburn

Are you thinking about making a jump into the housing market? Reach out to me and I can help you with any questions you might have.

You can read more from the original article here.


Posted on October 22, 2015 at 11:33 am
Denni Shefrin | Posted in Buying, Selling |